01 引言:股市如棋局,博弈见真章风会熄灭蜡烛,却能使火越烧越旺。——纳西姆·塔勒布股市从来不是简单的涨跌游戏,而是一场精密的博弈。有人靠运气赚了钱,却总在贪婪中亏光;有人看似理性,却在关键节点被主力玩弄于股掌。今天,我们要揭秘的博弈水平面指标,正是散户对抗机构的第三只眼。它像航海者的指南针,帮你避开暗礁,锁定主力资金的真实动向。
02 指标原理:三步拆解主力的“剧本”看清主力套路,从“三线交响曲”开始
1. 核心逻辑:三重滤网筛真信号
B1线(短期情绪线):用1周期均线捕捉价格瞬时波动,像雷达扫描市场情绪
B2线(博弈中枢):通过三重SMA平滑处理,过滤噪音,形成主力资金的心理防线
SMA2线(趋势锚点):3周期均线作为趋势转折的临界点,类似生死线
2. 止损线:你的数字安全带动态止损下限 = 近8日最低B2值 vs 当前B2值,取更保守值实战比喻:就像开车时系好安全带,股价跌破止损线立即下车,保住本金
3. 水平面:主力的“心理魔咒”SNAKEA1 = 13周期B2最高点,形成多空博弈的分水岭关键技巧:当价格突破黄色水平面,往往预示新一波主升浪启动
03 实战应用:我的血赚时刻2024年9月,我是如何用它抓住光伏龙头的?
去年光伏板块暴跌时,博弈水平面指标给了我绝地反击的机会:
信号捕捉:某龙头股跌破止损线后快速反弹,B2线(绿色)开始勾头向上
操作节奏:第一阶段(筑底期):用5%仓位试仓,成本区间在止损线之上第二阶段(突破期):当B2线站稳SMA2线,加仓至30%第三阶段(趋势确认):SNAKEA1被突破时,满仓追击,最终获利78%
教训总结:
切忌孤注一掷:止损线不是绝对真理,但能帮你及时纠错
警惕“假突破”:结合成交量判断,单日放量突破才有效
04 指标适配:谁最适合用它?你的交易风格决定是否匹配
适配人群 | 不适合人群 |
---|---|
波段操作者 | 频繁短线交易者 |
耐心型投资者 | 情绪化交易者 |
主力资金追踪者 | 盲目跟风者 |
大盘蓝筹/行业龙头 | 小盘股/垃圾股 |
使用建议:
最佳搭档:结合MACD金叉/量价齐升信号,提升胜率
风险提示:在震荡市中可能出现频繁误报,建议设置5%止损线
05 福利分享:指标源码+选股条件手把手教你复制粘贴财富密码
通达信博弈水平面主图指标源码:
B1:=MA(C,1);
B2:=SMA(SMA(SMA(B1,2,1),2,1),2,1);
SMA2:=MA(B2,3);
停损下限:=IF(LLV(MA(B2,8),3)<B2,LLV(MA(B2,8),3),B2),COLORWHITE,LINETHICK1,POINTDOT;
SNAKEA1:=HHV(MA(B2,1),13),COLORYELLOW;
X1:=SNAKEA1;
X2:=IF(SNAKEA1<=B2,SNAKEA1,IF(B2>SMA2,B2,B2));
DRAWBAND(SNAKEA1,RGB(64,64,196),MIN(停损下限,L),RGB(64,64,64));
MIN(停损下限,L),COLORWHITE,LINETHICK1;
停损:停损下限,COLORGREEN,LINETHICK1;
SNAKEA:=SNAKEA1;
水平面:SNAKEA,COLORYELLOW,LINETHICK1;
IF (SNAKEA1<=B2,B2,DRAWNULL),COLORYELLOW,LINETHICK2;
STICKLINE(C>=O,C,O,3,0),COLOR000045;
STICKLINE(C>=O,C,O,2.5,0),COLOR000065;
STICKLINE(C>=O,C,O,2,0),COLOR000085;
STICKLINE(C>=O,C,O,1.5,0),COLOR0000A5;
STICKLINE(C>=O,C,O,1,0),COLOR0000C5;
STICKLINE(C>=O,C,O,0.5,0),COLOR0000E5;
STICKLINE(C>=O,H,L,0,0),COLOR0000F5;
STICKLINE(C<O,C,O,3,0),COLOR353500;
STICKLINE(C<O,C,O,2.5,0),COLOR454500;
STICKLINE(C<O,C,O,2,0),COLOR555500;
STICKLINE(C<O,C,O,1.5,0),COLOR656500;
STICKLINE(C<O,C,O,1,0),COLOR757500;
STICKLINE(C<O,C,O,0.5,0),COLOR858500;
STICKLINE(C<O,H,L,0,0),COLOR959500;
VAR1A:=(2*CLOSE+HIGH+LOW)/4;
VAR2A:=MA(VAR1A,7);
VAR3A:=VAR2A-MA(VAR1A,7/2)<0;
VAR4A:=VAR2A-MA(VAR1A,7/2)>0;
VAR5A:=BARSLAST(VAR3A);
VAR6A:=0-BARSLAST(VAR4A);
VAR7A:=IF(VAR3A<=0,VAR5A,VAR6A);
VAR11A:=(CLOSE*2+HIGH+LOW)/4;
VAR21A:=EMA(VAR11A,13)-EMA(VAR11A,34);
VAR31A:=EMA(VAR21A,5);
VAR2:=((CLOSE > REF(CLOSE,1)) AND (CLOSE > REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR3:=((REF(VAR2,1) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR4:=((REF(VAR3,1) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR5:=((REF(VAR4,1) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR6:=((REF(VAR5,1) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR7:=((REF(VAR6,1) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR8:=((REF(VAR7,1) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR9:=((REF(VAR8,1) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VARA:=((REF(VAR9,1) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VARB:=((REF(VARA,1) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VARC:=((REF(VARB,1) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VARD:=((REF(VARC,1) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VARE:=((CLOSE < REF(CLOSE,1)) AND (CLOSE < REF(CLOSE,2)));
VARF:=((REF(VARE,1) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR10:=((REF(VARF,1) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR11:=((REF(VAR10,1) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR12:=((REF(VAR11,1) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR13:=((REF(VAR12,1) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR14:=((REF(VAR13,1) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR15:=((REF(VAR14,1) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR16:=((REF(VAR15,1) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR17:=((REF(VAR16,1) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR18:=((REF(VAR17,1) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR19:=((REF(VAR18,1) AND (CLOSE >= REF(CLOSE,1))) AND (CLOSE <= REF(CLOSE,2)));
VAR1B:=(REF((((((((((((VARE OR VARF) OR VAR10) OR VAR11) OR VAR12) OR VAR13) OR VAR14) OR VAR15) OR VAR16) OR VAR17) OR VAR18) OR VAR19),1) AND VAR2);
STICKLINE(VAR1B,O,O+(C-O)/3,3,0),COLOR005555;
STICKLINE(VAR1B,O,O+(C-O)/3,2.5,0),COLOR006565;
STICKLINE(VAR1B,O,O+(C-O)/3,2,0),COLOR007575;
STICKLINE(VAR1B,O,O+(C-O)/3,1.5,0),COLOR008585;
STICKLINE(VAR1B,O,O+(C-O)/3,1,0),COLOR009595;
STICKLINE(VAR1B,O,O+(C-O)/3,0.5,0),COLOR00A5A5;
STICKLINE(VAR1B,O,O+(C-O)/3,0,0),COLOR00B5B5;
AA:=(REF((((((((((((VAR2 OR VAR3) OR VAR4) OR VAR5) OR VAR6) OR VAR7) OR VAR8) OR VAR9) OR VARA) OR VARB) OR VARC) OR VARD),1) AND VARE);
STICKLINE(AA,O,O+(C-O)/3,3,0),COLOR005500;
STICKLINE(AA,O,O+(C-O)/3,2.5,0),COLOR006500;
STICKLINE(AA,O,O+(C-O)/3,2,0),COLOR007500;
STICKLINE(AA,O,O+(C-O)/3,1.5,0),COLOR008500;
STICKLINE(AA,O,O+(C-O)/3,1,0),COLOR009500;
STICKLINE(AA,O,O+(C-O)/3,0.5,0),COLOR00A500;
STICKLINE(AA,O,O+(C-O)/3,0,0),COLOR00B500;
A13:=EMA(CLOSE,55);
A14:=MA(CLOSE,75);
A15:=EMA(A14,3);
A16:=EMA(A15,3);
A17:=(HIGH + LOW) / 5;
A18:=(MA(A17,4)) - (MA(A17,34));
A19:=CROSS(A18,0);
A20:=CROSS(0,A18);
A21:=BARSLAST(A19);
A22:=BARSLAST(A20);
A23:=REF(A19,1);
A24:=REF(A20,1);
A25:=BARSLAST(A23);
A26:=BARSLAST(A24);
A27:=IF((A25 < A26),(REF((HHV(HIGH,2)),A25)),(REF((LLV(LOW,2)),A26)));
A28:=(((REF(CLOSE,1)) <= (REF(A27,1))) AND (CLOSE > A27)) AND (A21 < A22);
A29:=(((REF(CLOSE,1)) >= (REF(A27,1))) AND (CLOSE < A27)) AND (A22 < A21);
A30:=A28 AND ((COUNT(A28,A21)) = 1);
A31:=A29 AND ((COUNT(A29,A22)) = 1);
A32:=A30 AND ((REF(BARSLAST(A31),1)) < (REF(BARSLAST(A30),1)));
A33:=A31 AND ((REF(BARSLAST(A31),1)) > (REF(BARSLAST(A30),1)));
DRAWTEXT(A32,SMA2*0.99,'←═≒∝'),COLORYELLOW;
AC:=AMOUNT/(VOL);
YY:=MA(AC,13);
LLL:=(C-YY)/YY*100;
MIDC := MA(CLOSE,22);
UPPERC:= MIDC + 2*STD(C,22);
LOWERC:= MIDC - 2*STD(C,22);
BBA:=(C-LOWERC)/(UPPERC-LOWERC);
BBC:=FORCAST(BBA,3);
LIFENGCYC:=(REF(LLL,1)<-15 AND REF(BBA,1)<0 AND LLL>REF(LLL,1));
IF (LIFENGCYC,L*0.95,DRAWNULL),POINTDOT,LINETHICK4,COLORWHITE;
配套选股(突破信号)
{博弈水平面突破选股条件}
B2:=SMA(SMA(SMA(CLOSE,2,1),2,1),2,1);
SNAKEA1:HHV(MA(B2,1),13);
CROSS(CLOSE,SNAKEA1) AND MA(VOL,5)>MA(VOL,20);
06 结尾:在博弈中寻找确定性潮水退去才知道谁在裸泳,指标失效时方显真功夫。
博弈水平面指标不是万能钥匙,但它能帮你打开主力资金的思维黑箱。记住:
第一性原理:所有技术指标的本质,都是人性的映射
进阶建议:在掌握指标后,尝试建立自己的信号矩阵(如:指标+基本面+市场情绪)
最后送大家一句话:股市没有常胜将军,但永远有善用工具的幸存者。